How Odds Are Calculated
Odds Formula
Odds Ratio = Peak Price ÷ First Purchase Price
Components
First Purchase Price
The exact price when a smart money address first bought the token, captured from on-chain transactions.
Peak Price
The highest price the token achieved since launch, aggregated across multiple DEX sources. We consider only price action after the candle when the smart address first bought.
Special Cases: Malicious and Short‑Lived Tokens
Malicious Tokens (Odds = -1)
Assets flagged by on-chain and off-chain heuristics as risky (e.g., honeypot/un-sellable or blacklist controls, extreme or mutable taxes, removable liquidity, mint authority not renounced, trading disabled, aggressive liquidity control). These do not represent genuine upside opportunities, so their odds are fixed at -1 to indicate a high‑risk classification and are separated from normal samples in analysis.
Short‑Lived Tokens (Odds = -0.5)
Tokens that lose liquidity or die shortly after launch (e.g., only a handful of candles, volume collapses quickly, delisted/abandoned shortly). Because they rarely form a meaningful peak, we assign a uniform odds marker of -0.5 to distinguish them from ordinary losses.
Note: Negative odds here are classification markers for risk/short‑lived behavior and do not represent literal ROI multiples.
Examples
High Performance: First buy $0.001, Peak $1.00 = 1,000x odds
Moderate Performance: First buy $0.50, Peak $5.00 = 10x odds
Loss: First buy $2.00, Peak $1.50 = 0.75x odds
Data Filters
To ensure data quality, we exclude:
Success Metrics
Peak >2x Rate
Percentage of tokens that achieved at least 2x their purchase price:
Average Odds
Mean odds ratio across all token purchases by an address: