How Odds Are Calculated
Odds Formula
Odds Ratio = Peak Price ÷ First Purchase Price
Components
First Purchase Price
The exact price when a smart money address first bought the SPL token, captured from Solana blockchain transactions.
Peak Price
The highest price the token achieved from launch until present day, aggregated from multiple Solana DEX platforms. We only consider price data after the candle when the token was first purchased by the smart money address.
Examples
High Performance: First buy $0.001, Peak $1.00 = 1,000x odds
Moderate Performance: First buy $0.50, Peak $5.00 = 10x odds
Loss: First buy $2.00, Peak $1.50 = 0.75x odds
Data Filters
To ensure data quality, we exclude:
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High-frequency bot addresses — Filtered out using trading pattern analysis
•
Price spikes under 1 minute — Skipped to avoid manipulation artifacts
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Wash trading — Circular transactions between related addresses
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Flash loans — Leveraged positions that don't represent genuine investment
•
Micro transactions — Below minimum threshold for meaningful analysis
Success Metrics
Peak >2x Rate
Percentage of tokens that achieved at least 2x their purchase price:
(Tokens with >2x peak ÷ Total tokens) × 100
Average Odds
Mean odds ratio across all token purchases by an address:
Sum of all odds ÷ Number of purchases